CompanionnowcastDemo ยท payment-dark
Nowcast
Built for The Economic Explainer ยท Fiscal modelling in plain numbers
Combine leading indicators into one forward signal โ expansion, caution, or contraction โ with every component's contribution visible.
Forward signal ยท every component visible
One read from 6 leading indicators
Stress-test the call โ load a scenario, then fine-tune any input
The published late-cycle mix โ mildly negative across most fronts.
Composite forward signal
Caution
score โ0.16 on a โ1โฆ+1 scale
โ Contraction (โ1)CautionExpansion (+1) โ
The signals are mixed and near neutral โ no clear forward direction. Watch the components that move.
โ0.16
Composite score
1 / 6
Components leaning positive
100
Total weight (ฮฃ wแตข)
Per-component contribution to the score
contribution = (weight รท ฮฃ weight) ร normalized signal. Bars right of center add to the score, bars left subtract. They sum to โ0.16 โ the headline regime call, with nothing hidden.
z โ0.38 ยท w 25%
โ0.094
z โ0.32 ยท w 14%
โ0.045
z โ0.29 ยท w 11%
โ0.031
z โ0.16 ยท w 18%
โ0.028
z โ0.10 ยท w 20%
โ0.020
z +0.50 ยท w 12%
+0.060
โ center line = zero contribution (component at its neutral reading)
Sealed-call ledger ยท SHA-256 hash chain
Open public verify โ# nowcast ยท sealed-call ledger
# Seal a read to begin a tamper-evident, hash-chained record of the call.
Illustrative model with seeded readings โ not investment advice and not an official forecast. Composite weighting is fully exposed and editable; no hidden index. Live data feeds are out of scope.Read the methodology โ
Showcase demo for the Born Between 2 Generals summit. Showcase ยท best home: LLC / BBG Academy. Seeded with realistic sample data; runs payment-dark (no billing). Not a production system.